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ABM (Agent-Based Modeling) Simulations of Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas
Human mobility is a key element in the understanding of epidemic spreading. Thus, correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for studying large-scale spatial transmission of infectious diseases and improving epidemic control. In this study, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation (MATSim) is linked with a generic epidemic spread model to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban environment. The use of an agent-based model allows reproduction of the real-world behavior of individuals’ daily path in an urban setting and allows the capture of interactions among them, in the form of a spatial-temporal social network. This model is used to study seasonal influenza outbreaks in the metropolitan area of Zurich, Switzerland. The observations of the agent-based models are compared with results from classical SIR models. The model presented is a prototype that can be used to analyze multiple scenarios in the case of a disease spread at an urban scale, considering variations of different model parameters settings. The results of this simulation can help to improve comprehension of the disease spread dynamics and to take better steps towards the prevention and control of an epidemic
Dr Jürgen Hackl is a Lecturer at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Data Analytics Group at the University of Zurich. He received his doctorate in Engineering Science from the ETH Zurich in July 2019. His research interests lie in complex urban systems and span both computational modelling and network science. Much of his work has been on improving the understanding, design, and performance of complex interdependent infrastructure systems, affected by natural hazards. Presently, he works on getting a better understanding of how the topology of the system influences dynamic processes and how this can be used to decrease the complexity of computational models. In order to transfer this knowledge to the industry, he co-founded the start-up Carmentae Infrastructure Management, helping infrastructure managers in their decision-making processes. Furthermore, he has a long history of supporting a sustainable digital world by developing and maintaining various open-source projects.