Hector Diego Estrada-Lugo

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BSc degree in Physics from the Autonomous National University of Mexico (UNAM, Mexico) in 2015. Worked as assistant researcher at the project “Multi-wired moun’s detector at the Teotihuacan pyramid” from 2012 to 2015. Awarded with a scholarship from the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACyT) and the Energy Secretary (SENER) of Mexico to study the Master's degree (MSc) in Radiometrics: Instrumentation and Modelling in 2016 at the School of Physics of the University of Liverpool (UoL). Currently, PhD student at the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty of the UoL since 2017.

Research Interests: Credal networks, imprecise probabilities, p-box, Bayesian networks, Risk assessment, approximate inference

Research project title: Probabilistic risk assessment of severe accidents for critical installations

Project description: In order to improve the robustness of facilities against natural threats, risk assessments must be carried out considering updates of climate conditions which can be different from those for which technological installations were designed first. This new information can be useful not only for long-term decision making but also, in the case of an emergency event. In this regard, probabilistic methods like Bayesian networks have increasingly been used to perform risk assessments proving to be a reliable and powerful tool with the flexibility to include different types of data and capturing the complexity of the system under analysis.

Credal network is a generalization of the Bayesian network approach for imprecise probabilities that is being explored as an option to represent the uncertainty due to the lack of information or conflict data. This will allow performing a robust analysis despite the imprecise conditions of the data.

Supervisory team: Dr Edoardo Patelli; Dr Marco De Angelis; Dr Francisco Alejandro Diaz de la O

ORCID: 0000-0001-5929-6414