Alexander Wimbush

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I began my PhD in 2017 after leaving a position in Airbus working as a Problem Solving Engineer, focusing on A320 wing geometry issues. I began my research at the University of Liverpool studying Monte Carlo methods for fatigue life estimation of additive manufactured structures, and I’m now developing concepts to evaluate and compute with confidence structures.

Research Interests: Confidence, Communicating Uncertainty, Multivariate Dependency

Research project title:

Project description: Precise estimation of probability distributions is prone to over-confidence, and there are a variety of structures available for alleviating these issues. Confidence structures are a means of generating basic intervals with the property that they provide a frequentist assurance of coverage. There are a number of topics that follow, namely how to work with these structures in calculations with and without dependence, but also issues such as whether these structures are perhaps prone to over-confidence and how to assess these properties. Is there a better way to portray confidence than a simple interval that is suitable for computation? This project aims to address these issues with confidence structures by providing a framework to assess the ‘validity’ of confidence structures, both empirical and defined, and a means by which they can be propagated through models. Considerations must also be given to how individuals and groups interpret the output of confidence estimations, and the implications this could have for communicating uncertainty.

Supervisory team: Scott Ferson (Risk Institute), Kate Black (Engineering)

ORCID: 0000-0002-1719-7124