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Probabilistic Safety Assessment of a Nuclear Power Plant using Credal NetworksInstitute for Risk and Uncertainty
This research seeks to apply techniques of converting Fault-tree into Credal Network and making the use of the latter to perform the necessary Probabilistic Safety Assessment of a Nuclear Power Plant. As a case study, we will be looking into the Three-Mile Island accident.
Modelling Just in Time Production with UncertaintyInstitute for Risk and Uncertainty
Being able to predict the limits of a production line can be beneficial in conditions with increased environmental and political uncertainty. Currently, most production flow models consider uncertainty either for the delivery of resources or the internal structure of the production flow (failure of production equipment). The aim is to present a tool that can combine sources of uncertainty and simulate the production flow under a demand function to help determine the theoretical limits of the system.
High Bandwith Morphing Actuator for Experiemental Aeroelastic ControlInstitute for Risk and Uncertainty
The installation and wind tunnel testing of a camber-morphing trailing edge system on an aeroelastic wing is presented. Such morphing system, called High Bandwidth Morphing Actuator (HBMA), is capable of achieving actuation frequencies up to 25 Hz with varying amplitudes. The installation of the morphing actuator in the aeroelastic rig is firstly achieved. Then the aeroelastic behaviour of the entire system is assessed and an active controller is designed, by using the Receptance Method, with the aim of increasing the damping of the first bending and torsional modes. The HBMA proved to be capable of introducing the desired control input that resulted in an increase the flutter velocity up to 10%.
Neural Mechanisms of Reward Processing During Online Vickrey AuctionsThe School of Pyschology
Being able to evaluate decision outcomes is critical for adaptive decision-making, especially under conditions of risk and uncertainty, such as during an auction. This project aimed to investigate the behavioural strategies and electrophysiological brain activity that occurs during online second-price sealed-bid auctions, which are akin to the eBay format. Using electroencephalography (EEG), event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with reward processing were analysed, in order to better understand how individuals appraise risky situations, receive feedback and form game strategies.
Uncertainty in Classification without Gold StandardsInstitute for Risk and Uncertainty
When designing diagnostic tests or classification algorithms, analysts often refer to the ‘gold standard’ of evidence to calculate the statistical characteristics of the new test. However, these gold standards can themselves be imperfect and have some errors associated with them. The talk present a series of logical rules that should hold when considering methods that aim to account for the error in diagnoses based upon an imperfect gold standard and a method to account for this uncertainty using the frame work provided by imprecise probabilities