Expert Elicitation symposium

  • Date: 13th & 14th February, 2019
  • Time: 10:00 - 17:00
  • Location: Risk Institute

Wednesday 13th February 2019

10:00   Planning and Discussion
12:00   Lunch
13:00 Anthony O'Hagan Elicitation, Subjective but Scientific
14:30 Laura Bojke Eliciting subjective priors for health care decision making
16:00 Kelsey LaMere Making the Most of Mental Models: Advancing the Methodology for Mental Model Elicitation and Documentation with Expert Stakeholders
17:00   Discussions, continuing at the Philharmonic



Anthony O'Hagan

Emeritus Professor at the University of Sheffield.
O'Hagan's research focusses on the theory and application of Bayesian statistics, in particular in the elicitation of expert knowledge, managing and quantifying uncertainty in the use of complex mechanistic modelling and Bayesian modelling. O'Hagan has done extensive research and consulting activities in many application areas, particularly in medicine, environmental science, asset management and health economics.

On the topic of expert elicitation, O'Hagan is responsible for a number of significant developments. With his extensive experience in research, teaching and practice, he is one of the foremost experts, experienced researchers, teachers and practitioners in the field.

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Laura Bojke

Reader, Centre for Health Economics, University of York
Bojke has conducted research in expert elicitation exploring uncertainty within decision-analytic models in health technology assessment and economic evaluation for two decades. Her research involves the use of expert-elicited data within decision analytic models and is particularly focussed on application to issues of extrapolation uncertainty. Her experience includes a wide range of applied and methodological problems in modelling the cost-effectiveness of human disease treatments.

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Kelsey LaMere

LaMere is a PhD candidate from the University of Helsinki's Doctoral Program for Interdisciplinary Sciences (DENVI), whose research focuses on the effects of climate change on Baltic salmon and how we can use stakeholder knowledge to understand the problem. Additionally, she has been researching risk communication within interdisciplinary scientific teams. LaMere comes from a background in zoology and natural resource management and am interested in the involvement of stakeholders in the scientific process, science communication, risk assessment, and the science-policy interface.

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Fernand Gobet

Professor of Psychological Sciences in the Insititute of Population Health Sciences.
Gobet's research focusses on cognitive science, cognitive psychology, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, education, and philosophy. Gobet brings the psychological perspectives on human expertise, how this reflects basic traits such as personality and intelligence, as well as knowledge and skills acquired through training. His publications include many books and scholarly articles on expert elicitation.

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Mark Burgman

Director of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.
Burgman's research focusses on expert judgement, ecological modelling, conservation biology, and risk assessment. Burgman has done practical and theoretical research in application areas such as biosecurity, medicine regulation, marine fisheries, forestry, irrigation, electrical power utilities, mining, and national park planning.

On the topic of expert elicitation, Burgman has contributed extensively to the field combining psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates, structured elicitation protocols to improve the accuracy of expert judgement, and examination of trade-offs of group-based versus individual elicitation. Burgman has advised government agencies on the use of expert elicitation in policy decisions.

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Scott Ferson

Director of the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty at the University of Liverpool.
Ferson's recent research has focused on developing methods and software to solve quantitative assessment problems when data are poor or lacking and structural knowledge about the model is severely limited. Ferson's contribution to the field of expert elicitation includes quantitative decoding of natural-language words used to express uncertainty ('hedges'), estimation of rare-event probabilities without data, and extensions of probability theory to deal with analyses with little or no data.

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Jinglai Li

Li is a Reader in the Department of Mathematical Sciences who received the B.Sc. degree in Applied Mathematics from Sun Yat-sen University and the PhD degree in Mathematics from SUNY Buffalo. After obtaining his PhD degree, Li did postdoctoral research at Northwestern University and MIT respectively and prior to arriving at Liverpool, was an Associate Professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
Current research interests are in scientific computing, computational statistics, uncertainty quantification, data science and their applications in various scientific and engineering problems.

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